Newsletter

The recent summit between Japan and Russia was held in Tokyo and the city of Nagato (長門市) at Yamaguchi Prefecture (山口県), Japan. Even before the summit took place, both countries revealed their enthusiasm by openly flaunting diplomatic gestures. Aiming to resolve its territorial issue with Russia, Japan seemed to be the keener of the two in the talks. Japan must have hoped to establish circumstances favorable toward its stance on the four Kuril Islands and thereby prepare for future discussions to be held over them. Japan's Prime minister Abe and Russia's President Putin have often exchanged opinions and repeatedly discussed their territorial issue whenever they met on other diplomatic occasions. The recent summit was a product of vigorous diplomatic efforts that took advantage of the status quo in which President Obama is nearing the end of his term and his successor has already been elected. President Putin was even invited to enjoy a hot spring bath at Prime Minister Abe's home constituency. These all show how meticulously Japan has been preparing to make as much progress as possible on its territorial issue with Russia.

The following sections review the historical developments that led to the recent summit and examine how arguments by Russia and Japan have each changed over time. The sections also look at what the two countries are aiming for through the meeting, how they're likely to proceed from there on, and what was actually discussed at the summit.

Historical Developments of the Territorial Issue

By signing the San Francisco Peace Treaty in September 1951, Japan ended the war and gave up the Kuril Islands. The Soviet Union did not sign the treaty at the time, which resulted in the need for a separate peace treaty to be concluded between Japan and Russia. Since then, the matter of which country the South Kuril Islands belong to surfaced as an issue that has proved difficult to negotiate. At the early stage of negotiations in 1955, Japan initially argued for the return of two out of four islands. However, when the Soviet Union later offered to return two islands, Japan suddenly changed its policy to argue for the return of all four islands, which brought discussions to a halt.

After a Japan-Russia summit in 1956, the two countries signed a joint declaration and normalized their diplomatic relations. That declaration stipulated that the two countries "will conclude a peace treaty and return two islands to Japan," but the rise of the Cold War ended up making it difficult for proper discussions to take place until the 1990s. In April 1991, President Gorbachev mentioned the names of the four Kuril Islands in a joint statement between Japan and the Soviet Union and officially acknowledged that there is a territorial issue associated with the islands. Once the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia unofficially made the "Kunadze proposal," offering to return two islands and to continue to engage in discussions over the remaining two islands Kunashiri and Etorofu. However, Japan eventually refused to accept the proposal because it didn't seem to guarantee for certain the return of Kunashiri and Etorofu.

In April 1998, the then Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro (橋本龍太郎) made the so-called “Kawana (川奈) proposal,” offering to recognize Russia’s administrative authority over the four islands for the time being if Russia acknowledges Japan’s territorial sovereignty over the islands. The proposal meant drawing a definitive border between the two countries to the north of the four South Kuril Islands. Doing so would have confirmed that the islands are Japanese territory, but would have also maintained the status quo by recognizing the legality of Russia's administrative authority over the islands and not demanding their immediate return. In other words, the matter of when the islands will be returned would have been left to be decided later on and Russia's administrative and legal authority over the four South Kuril Islands would have meanwhile been acknowledged. The proposal had made a huge concession compared to Japan's previous demand for the immediate return of all four islands, but Russia ultimately did not accept the proposal.

Later on, Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro (森喜郎) of Japan once suggested pursuing "parallel negotiations." Through summit talks that took place in Irkutsk, Russia in March 2001, negotiations were held on the schedule and conditions for the return of the two islands after concluding a peace treaty, which was what had been promised through the joint declaration in 1956. At a separate meeting that simultaneously took place, it was agreed that negotiations would be held on which country the territorial sovereignty of Kunashiri and Etorofu belongs to and that a peace treaty would be concluded once the two-stage negotiations were over. Prime Minister Mori explained at the time that although Japan's ultimate goal was to have all four islands returned, it was not being advocated as a prerequisite.

In March 2012, right before a presidential election was to be held in Russia, Prime Minister Putin expressed hopes to resolve the territorial issue with Japan through concessions made from both sides. And at a summit meeting in April 2013 with the then Japanese Prime Minister Abe, he was eventually able to arrive at a consensus to accelerate efforts to come up with a resolution acceptable for both sides. Several more summit talks followed thereafter and led to the most recent summit where the two leaders discussed and agreed to seek a "new approach."

What Japan and Russia Desires

What Japan desires is to bring change to its territorial status through the return of the South Kuril Islands. So far, Japan has been demanding the return of the four islands based on the argument that "they have inherently been Japanese territory." It has been hoping for Russia to be more flexible in its engagement in negotiations on the matter. With seventy-one years already gone by since the end of the war, Japan has stuck to its "inherent territory" argument to elicit some sort of concrete progress, but since none has been made, different arguments based on ideas of "2 + extra" have surfaced lately among the public in Japan. Such ideas suggest adjusting Japan's exclusive economic zone to make it more advantageous for Japan in addition to taking over the two islands Habomai and Shikotan, or suggest regaining three instead of all four islands by including Kunashiri in addition to Habomai and Shikotan. Under these circumstances, Prime Minister Abe's strategy is to consent to executing joint economic activities on the four islands or allowing more civilian visits to them under expectations that such actions will help make progress in negotiations over the territorial issue as well as the peace treaty. This seems to be a "new approach" toward territorial negotiations that goes beyond any existing idea.

Russia, on the other hand, desires to achieve economic development on the Kuril Islands through bilateral cooperation. Russia seems to believe it is too early to set a deadline for concluding a peace treaty with Japan when trust between the two countries has not yet been established. There has been no change in its stance that it has territorial sovereignty over the four Kuril Islands. It claims that trust must first be formed in eight different categories including economic cooperation, personal exchange, and joint economic activities before the two countries can move on to the next phase of territorial negotiations. President Putin is also communicating that it is absolutely necessary for a mood of cooperation, friendliness, and trust to be formed between the two countries. Yet, he has at the same time admitted that economic cooperation is not a prerequisite to the conclusion of a peace treaty.

If Japan and Russia continue with their current approaches, they might be able to make a certain degree of progress in building trust, but new issues are likely to arise between the United States, the European Union, and Japan in terms of imposing sanctions against Russia over the Ukrainian crisis.

The Latest Japan-Russia Summit

The latest Japan-Russia summit took place at two different locations in Japan. The first round of talks lasted for approximately five hours after beginning at eight minutes past six o'clock in the evening at the Otani Sanso hotel in Nagato, Yamaguchi prefecture, which is Prime Minister Abe's home constituency. Before starting the meeting, Prime Minister Abe greeted President Putin by telling him how happy he is to be able to invite the president to his home town and that he hopes the president will enjoy tasting the local dishes in the midst of beautiful scenery. He also said the hot springs at the resort will help completely wash away the fatigue caused by the talks. President Putin thanked Prime Minister Abe for the invite to the prime minister's home town and remarked that talking regularly with the prime minister has brought progress in the relations between Russia and Japan. President Putin then added that he has high hopes for the talks to help further develop the two countries' relations.

After engaging in talks for three hours, Prime Minister Abe described that the meeting was held under a pleasant atmosphere. He revealed that talks primarily revolved around economic issues, while talks in smaller groups discussed bilateral or international issues as well. He went on to explain that it will vital for Russia to play a constructive role and that the two countries' cooperation could lead to the resolution of multiple issues. The two leaders even talked in private for 95 minutes to mainly discuss the matter of concluding a peace treaty.

The first day's talks proceeded based on what the two leaders previously discussed through meetings at Sochi, Vladivostok, and Lima. Prime Minister Abe proposed to allow former Japanese residents of the South Kuril Islands to freely visit their home towns and to conduct joint economic activities on the four islands by making "special arrangements." The prime minister's impression was that quite candid, in-depth discussions took place over the peace treaty issue. During the private meeting between the two leaders, President Putin personally read aloud a letter written in Russian by a former Japanese resident of the islands and Prime Minister Abe was afterwards spotted handing the president the rest of the letters from other former Japanese residents. The prime minister explained that he went into the talks bearing in mind that those former residents didn't have much time left to visit their home towns because they have already become, on average, eighty-one years old.

Meanwhile, the two leaders reached a consensus on resuming the two-plus-two meeting between the Russian and Japanese ministers of foreign affairs and defense, which had been discontinued as of 2011. This shows that the leaders have both recognized the need to communicate more in terms of security. President Putin expressed his concern toward the upcoming deployment of an American missile defense system to South Korea, to which Prime Minister Abe sought his understanding by saying that the system will not become a threat to neighboring countries or the region. The prime minister added that it is important to strictly observe the measures imposed on North Korea by the United Nations Security Council resolution and that he hoped to liaise with Russia on the matter.

During talks held on the first day, fishery processing, tourism, medicine, and the environment were suggested as some of the areas where joint economic activities could be performed on the South Kuril Islands for the ultimate purpose of making progress in territorial negotiations over the islands. Another matter discussed was about expanding the visa-free program for former Japanese residents so they can freely visit their home towns at the islands without having to obtain a visa from Russia. Yet, the territorial sovereignty over the four islands was barely raised as an issue over the recent talks. Russia's position on the issue is that there is no room for dispute. In other words, the four South Kuril Islands are Russian territory and Russia's demand to recognize the fact reflects exactly where the country stands over the issue. This tendency emerged even before the latest summit took place because Russia seems wary of the possibility that the U.S. military could set up a base on the South Kuril Islands once they are returned to Japan. Russia seems to believe that Japan will not be able to ignore its responsibilities as an ally to the United States.

At the moment, Russia is rushing to designate and equip Kamchatka peninsula and the Kuril Islands as bases for defending the Asia-Pacific border. This is why new surface-to-surface missiles have recently been placed on the islands of Kunashiri and Etorofu. Prime Minister Abe wrapped up his report of the first day's meeting by saying discussions will continue in Tokyo and that their results will be announced through a press conference to be held the next day.

Talks on the second day resumed in Tokyo. An unsigned "joint document" about the first day's meeting was adopted to affirm the summit's significance and that discussions on joint economic activities would simultaneously be held. On the afternoon of December 16, 2016, the leaders of Japan and Russia announced a joint document pledging to launch discussions on jointly conducting economic activities on the four islands and to build the trust necessary between the two countries for them to make progress in negotiating a peace treaty. According to Russia, joint economic activities will be carried out on all four islands and the range of such activities will include specific areas such as fishery, medicine, and the environment. According to Japan, it is more likely for a special zone to be installed where specific legal measures will be authorized through "special arrangements."

The latest Japan-Russia summit can therefore be summarized as below.

As an attempt to resolve their territorial issue, the leaders of Japan and Russia entered talks by playing the card of economic cooperation, but became aware of the difference in the approach they each preferred to take. And the real challenge of discussing how to conduct joint economic activities still lies ahead of them. The difficulties the upcoming challenge are likely to present can be glimpsed through the remark the Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov made while the talks were being held by saying that "application of Russian domestic law is the precondition to engaging in joint economic activities." It therefore remains to be seen whether the activities will actually be feasible without violating Japan's legal position. Russia is likely to demand that the activities take place under its own sovereignty and then use it as a means to make Japan recognize the islands as Russian territory. Russia may argue that because the four islands belong to Russia, its own law should be followed on them.

In the meantime, sanctions imposed on Russia are likely to be an issue for its economic cooperation with Japan. Active economic cooperation can spoil the purpose of sanctions imposed by the international community and end up weakening international cooperation in general. Despite this risk, Japan is attempting to engage in economic and security cooperation with Russia to build enough trust to resolve its territorial issue. It will therefore be worth paying attention as to how Japan explains its actions to the United States as well as other European countries.