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To celebrate "Northern Territories Day" on February 7, "rallies demanding the return of territories" were held in Tokyo and Nemuro (根室), a city in Hokkaido (北海道), Japan. The rallies attracted considerable attention as they were being held after the Japan-Russia summit took place in December 2016. Those who participated in the rallies noted that "a sincere determination toward a peace treaty was present in the statement released after the summit talks" and expressed their hope for further progress to be made on the Kuril Islands issue in 2017. Former Japanese residents of the Kuril Islands revealed their concern that "they may have been harboring false hope when no particular progress has been made on territorial issues." Regarding the possibility of joint economic activities on the Kuril Islands, they argued that "such activities will require the territorial issue's resolution" and that "the Japanese government should firmly maintain their position when negotiating."

Prime Minister Abe personally attended the rally in Tokyo to point out that the government's efforts have been aimed at taking a further step toward concluding a peace treaty, saying that "it is necessary to devise a future vision for the Kuril Islands and seek a resolution out of that vision." He also explained that he "shared a resolve to settle issues over a sincere conversion with President Putin, even though a peace treaty has not yet been concluded after seventy years." He claimed that based on an understanding of the historical developments surrounding the territory, the Japanese government plans to adopt a "new approach" to engage in discussions about a "special arrangement" for joint economic activities. Prime Minister Abe mentioned his plans to visit Russia in 2017 to add momentum toward the conclusion of a peace treaty with Russia, stressing that efforts will continued to be made for the peace treaty's conclusion.

This article will first examine the historical developments related to the designation of a "Northern Territories Day" in Japan and how the territorial claims made by Japan and Russia have changed over time. The article will then cover how Japan has proceeded with the Kuril Islands issue by internationalizing it and finally consider the efforts Japan is likely to make to regain the Kuril Islands amid the recent "Russification" and "Japanization" taking place on the islands.

Historical Developments Surrounding the Kuril Islands Issue

Postwar territorial issues between Japan and Russia were greatly influenced by the beginning of the Cold War. The alliance Japan formed with the United States deteriorated its relations with Russia, which left territorial issues with Russia unresolved and eventually turned them into a major diplomatic task for Japan. By signing the San Francisco Peace Treaty in September 1951, the war came to an end and Japan gave up the Kuril Islands. The Soviet Union did not sign the treaty at the time, causing the matter of concluding a separate peace treaty with Japan to surface as an issue. The two countries have since been putting forth different rationales for determining which country the Kuril Islands belong to.

As a result of a summit talk in 1956, Japan and Russia signed a "joint declaration between Japan and the Soviet Union" and normalized diplomatic relations between the two countries. The declaration stipulated that the two countries "will conclude a peace treaty and return the two islands to Japan," but talks grew remote over the Cold War and developed into opposing positions. Japan came to establish its basic position as "the immediate return of all four islands." The Soviet Union, per Gorbachev's foreign policy of "new thinking," readily proposed "the return of two islands Habomai and Shikotan" at the time. However, a gap materialized between what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, relevant experts, and the public in Japan each thought about the Soviet Union's proposal. The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs adamantly stuck to the government's basic position whereas experts argued for "the return of two islands."

The two countries thereafter remained incapable of engaging in proper discussions until President Gorbachev officially acknowledged through a joint statement between Japan and the Soviet Union in April 1991 that a territorial issue indeed existed between the two countries. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia once made the unofficial "Kunadze proposal" which offered to uphold the return of two islands and promised to continue discussions about the islands Kunashiri and Etorofu. Yet, Japan refused to accept the proposal under grounds that it did not guarantee the return of Kunashiri and Etorofu. At the time, Japan wanted Gorbachev to make concessions on the territorial issue by recognizing Japan's territorial sovereignty over the four islands without actually returning them in exchange for entering into comprehensive economic cooperation. Japan seemed to be attracted to this idea of "potential sovereignty," but it failed to attract the Soviet Union's attention. Despite such Japanese efforts, Gorbachev's visits to Japan failed to make any progress in terms of the two countries' territorial issue. This was made apparent when Gorbachev mentioned nothing about the joint declaration the two countries once made back in 1956.

The territorial issue between Japan and Russia underwent change from the spring of 1996. Japan attempted to make a switch from its “expanding equilibrium policy” to a “multi-level approach” so as to fundamentally improve its relations with Russia, resolve its territorial issue with the country, and conclude a peace treaty. In April 1998, then Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro (橋本龍太郎) made the so-called “Kawana (川奈) proposal” that offered to “recognize Russia’s administrative authority over the four islands for the time being if Russia acknowledges Japan’s territorial sovereignty over the islands.” By then, Japan began to show signs of conceding to a “phased” rather than an “instant and complete” return, although the underlying premise still concerned all four islands. This was yet again different from Russia’s Kunadze proposal that offered to return two islands and continue discussions on the remaining two. And that gap between two and four islands has continued to maintain a fundamental difference in the two countries' perceptions.

Since Putin became Russia’s president in 2012, both sides have each revealed their willingness to make concessions in terms of the territorial issue. At the summit meeting in April 2013, Prime Minister Abe and President Putin agreed to accelerate their efforts to come up with a mutually acceptable resolution and through several subsequent meetings which culminated in the summit talks near the end of 2016 also agreed to discuss a “new approach.”

Internationalizing the Kuril Islands Issue

As Gorbachev adopted a foreign policy of new thinking, Japan attempted to “internationalize” its northern territories issue out of fear that it might be isolated because of the issue. In addition to preventing international isolation, Japan may have also intended to gain support from western countries on their territorial issue with Russia.

The Kuril Islands issue had originally been deeply related to the United States strategy during the Cold War. That is because Japan felt compelled to improve its relations with the Soviet Union in order to earn a place in the United States strategy toward the world. In other words, to the United States, the Kuril Islands issue was serving as a safety pad at the time to prevent Japan-Soviet relations from improving. However, as Gorbachev set his new diplomacy into motion, the United States desired to improve its relations with the Soviet Union, which then made it necessary to resolve the Kuril Islands issue and thereby create a new environment for international relations. So, the role of the United States shifted to that of an intermediary charged with improving the relations between Japan and Russia.

Japan nevertheless failed to grasp the change that came over the United States and simply anticipated that it would offer its support to Japan. It was difficult at the time for Japan to catch on to the changes that were occurring on the international stage and lacked appropriate strategies, so Japan was naturally unable to adeptly respond to Gorbachev’s foreign policy of new thinking. The strategy Japan instead chose to employ was to launch map-related projects led by the Liberal Democratic Party. The purpose of such projects was to inform western countries that the Kuril Islands were part of Japanese territory and induce maps made around the world to mark the islands as Japanese territory, but responses from individual countries remained indifferent. Japan’s attempt to bring the issue under the international spotlight ended up forcing each country to examine their own historical approach toward the Kuril Islands and caused the issue to be perceived as a means rather than an obstacle to improving Japan-Russia relations.

“Russification” and “Japanization” of the Kuril Islands

As of late, Russia and Japan have been showing signs of strengthening stances favorable to themselves when it comes to the Kuril Islands. Russia is planning to “Russianize” the islands by launching a “Kuril Socio-economic Development Program” that involves building an airport, port, hospital, and repairing roads on the islands. The Japanese have been expressing concern over such moves by Russia. They feel that investing in social capital such as roads and hospitals and supplying military equipment will only reinforce Russia’s illegal occupation of the four islands. They are criticizing that if Russia moves forward with its plans to develop the four Kuril Islands, it will be prohibitive toward the return of the islands and eventually force them to remain as Russian territory. Russia says it intends to achieve economic development on the Kuril Islands through cooperation with Japan. It may still be early to set a deadline for concluding a peace treaty when mutual trust has not yet been fully established between the two countries, but Russia’s stance is that engaging in economic cooperation, exchange of human resources, and joint economic activities can help build the trust necessary to move on to a phase of territorial negotiation.

Japan, on the other hand, believes the return of the Kuril Islands begins with its "Japanization." Opening up discussions on joint economic activities and agreeing to improve the system that allows former Japanese residents to visit the islands both appear to be pertinent moves. Instead of seeking to suddenly draw a new territorial boundary, such moves seem to be part of a strategy of using economic exchange and cooperation to shape the islands into what the Japanese envision. So, Japan is now hoping the more than 6,000 former Japanese residents will be granted permission to visit the islands without any restrictions. There are currently no ships that can be rented to travel to the islands, and even if they become available, they will only be able to accommodate fifty to sixty passengers at a time. If ships can be assigned to sail to the islands and the port at Habomai can be renovated, all former Japanese residents should be able to freely visit. Meanwhile, Japan's idea of joint economic activities is to keep a close eye on the islands' situation and industrial resources while such activities are being carried out. In the case of Kunashiri, the Japanese believe that farming sea urchin or shell fish should be developed by integrating the island's natural heritage with that of Shiretoko (知床) in Hokkaido, Japan.

Based on the content of what was agreed at the recent summit talks on implementing joint economic activities, Japan seems to think "Japanization" may open up a chance for the Kuril Islands to be returned. Will "Japanization" be possible when Japan's role in the joint activities will mainly be investing capital and technology? How will Russia revise and carry out the "new system" for visiting the islands? These all seem to depend on how much of Japan's legal position will be recognized on the Kuril Islands.

Challenges to a Successful Resolution

After the summit meeting with Russia, Japan has been picking its pace up on negotiations for joint economic activities. Japan has so far maintained its stance on the return of all four Kuril Islands while Russia has only offered to return two of them, but Russia's argument has been gaining more support among people in Japan as well. An argument for the return of "two islands + extra" has also been surfacing in Japan. Since no further progress was made despite the various ideas on the return of the islands, Japan and Russia agreed through the summit in 2016 to seek a "new approach." The new approach entails building mutual trust through joint economic activities, which will contribute to forming a friendly relation of peace and cooperation that can ultimately give birth to a new legal agreement. Will Russia's actions in the East and the efforts by Russia and Japan to engage in discussions with one another help them reach their goal? That will be up to the politics and economy of both countries because the result of negotiations depends on how much they're able to satisfy one another. For instance, joint economic activities on the Kuril Islands will involve details related to economic cooperation in the Russian Far East. If they turn out to be a success, the relations between Russia and Japan will benefit and help them resolve their territorial issue.

The territorial issue between Japan and Russia over the Kuril Islands can be summed up as follows. First, considering the issue from a historical point of view will make it challenging to arrive at a resolution. This is apparent by the fact that the border between Japan and Russia has continued to change over time through the four different treaties signed between the two countries. And the United States, Japan, and Russia all have different opinions regarding that border, especially since the conclusion of the San Francisco Peace Treaty. Second, the efforts made by Japan and Russia since the mid-twentieth century to resolve the territorial issue has been influenced by changes in their domestic political scene. Gorbachev's foreign policy of new thinking after the end of the Cold War failed to contribute to the issue's resolution due to the difference between each country's stance and the difference in how they were internationally understood. Finally, "economic cooperation" is now being adopted as a means to resolve the territorial issue. Similar attempts have been made by Japan and Russia in the past, but they all eventually failed because of discrepancies in the two countries' positions. So, the real challenge is only about to begin with discussing how joint economic activities will be carried out.