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Implications of China's "One Belt, One Road" for the Korean Peninsula
    Cha Jae-bok (Research fellow, NAHF Research Institute of Korea-China Relations)

On September 14, 2017, the Northeast Asian History Foundation invited Korean experts, experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Peking University, Taiwan's Academia Sinica, and Chinese journalists to discuss the theme "China's One Belt, One Road and East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation." The "One Belt One Road" (一帶一路) initiative China has been promoting since it was revealed by the Xi Jinping administration in 2013 is a national development strategy aimed at China's political, economic, military, and cultural revival in the world by restoring the land and sea routes of the Silk Road. As the initiative has been gaining momentum each year, the recent conference served as an occasion to gain a better grasp on what kind of world order China aspires to build today and how President Xi Jinping plans to achieve the "great revival of the Chinese nation."

 

Implications of China's The Meaning of One Belt, One Road

The first presentation "China's One Belt, One Road and East Asian Policy" was given as an introduction the initiative by Director Xue Li of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Department of International Strategy. As far as its nature or name, the terms "plan," "initiative" (倡議), and "strategy" are interchangeably used in China to describe One Belt, One Road. Initiative is the term used outside China, and President Xi Jinping even hailed it as the "project of the century" at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in May 2017.

In March 2015, China's National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce jointly released the "Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road." The vision stated that the initiative would focus on building six economic corridors (经济走廊) on land and two sea routes each extending from China's coast to the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific.

As a result of the One Belt, One Road initiative, China is now operating a Silk Road of iron that reaches Europe on land. The freight railway that began to operate since January 2017 between the city of Yiwu in China's Zhejiang province and London in the United Kingdom is a sheer testament to China's geopolitical ambitions. Freight that used to be transported by camels along the trade route between China, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe is now to be transported by rail, which would form an extensive economic bloc with China at its center. Six months later in July, Yiwu has also been connected by rail to the Czech Republic's capital Prague. Departing from Prague, trains on that railway stop by Poland, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Alashankou (阿拉山口) at the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region before arriving at Yiwu in China's Zhejiang province, which takes much less time to travel compared to a 16-day trip by ship.

To form a maritime Silk Road, China's plan is to develop and secure operation rights to ports around the world that have geopolitical merit, which is why China has employed the strategy of connecting its strategic maritime bases like "a string of pearls." Private Chinese companies have been securing commercial ports at countries bordering the Indian Ocean such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan so that they may be connected to provide a sea route for China. And since it is costly to secure commercial ports and because such ports come with too many restraints for conducting emergency military operations, China has shifted it goal to securing facilities in Africa or the Middle East that allows the stationing of small military units and can also be used by private entities. Through a strategy report published in 2013, the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Science claimed that China should secure distribution bases overseas and station a limited number of military forces to be able to exercise political, military influence at areas where such bases are located. And China did in fact set up its first overseas naval base in Djibouti in July 2017.

 

Implications of China's

 

One Belt, One Road's Long-term Effect on Korea

In the past, China would play up the fact that it is the "world's largest developing country." Now it appeals to the "Chinese Dream" of reviving the Chinese nation and forming new relations with powerful countries, which implies that it has come to perceive itself as a power as well. China's One Belt, One Road initiative covers both land and sea and views the world in terms of strategic zones. As the initiative rapidly evolves, Korea must determine what implications the Chinese strategy may have on the Korean peninsula and how to get North Korea to participate in the international society. Korea is therefore in urgent need of researching and developing policies that can hitch the Korean peninsula to the One Belt, One Road initiative's westward expansion and make its own advancement into Eurasia.

The six economic corridors and two sea routes depicted in Figure 1 show that the One Belt, One Road initiative expands westward on land from Xian and into the waters from the coasts of China whereas regions to the east have been excluded. Yet, a look at the bigger picture reveals that the initiative is still part of China's overall diplomatic strategy. Consider the "Northeast China Revitalization Plan" of 2003, "Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt Development Plan" of 2009, "Chang-Ji-Tu (ChangchunJilinTumen) Development Project," "Program of Cooperation between Northeast China and Russia's Far East and Eastern Siberia (2009-2018)," and the One Belt, One Road initiative's only eastward economic corridor that links China, Mongolia, and Russia. These internal, external policies and mid-to-long term strategic road maps to develop northeast China indicate that, in the long run, northeast China, Mongolia, the two Koreas, and the Russian Far East are all connected to the One Belt, One Road initiative.

To Korea, China is still a constant that must be considered in devising plans for Korea-China relations, North Korean issues, and Korea's advancement into Eurasia. According to Dr. Xue Li of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, neighbors currently on China's diplomatic priority list go by the order of Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, ASEAN, Korea, and Japan. China believes that Mongolia and North Korea can be included in its realm of cooperation to realize its One Belt, One Road initiative. And since Korea has been favorable toward the initiative due to its political, economic relations with China, China seems to consider it as a major partner for cooperation in terms of its regional policies toward East Asia.

Like two sides of a coin, China's One Belt, One Road is enmeshed with the national interests and identities of each country, which means it can both positively and negatively impact relations between Korea and China. Nevertheless, if it helps resolve North Korean issues that are now Korea's greatest concern, establish broader economic, diplomatic connections between the Korean peninsula and Eurasia, and ultimately contribute to achieving unification on the Korean peninsula, Korea should be able to more carefully calibrate its approach toward China.