Newsletter

The new year of 2013, a year of Snake, is upon us. I wish all of you, who lend support to us at the Northeast Asian History Foundation, health and happiness.

As we welcome the new year, there are considerable tensions felt in our body and mind. I am concerned about how the international political landscape surrounding the Korean peninsula is heading for conflict and confrontation against our will. The political changes that occurred last year around the neighboring states are calling for our action with more caution and wisdom than ever. And the domestic and international challenges that face us are more serious than ever.

The East Asian Political Landscape Surrounding the Korean Peninsula

First of all, Japan is not hiding its outright right-wing shift in domestic politics. In the general election held on December 16, 2012, voters gave the majority of seats to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by President Shinzo Abe (安倍晋三), who pledged to amend the Peace Institution of Japan, and made the new 'Japan Restoration Party (JRP)' of the same nature the third party. The LDP and the JRP intend to amend Article 9 of the constitution, by which Japan is forbidden from waging war, participating in war, or having armed forces, so as to allow Japan to form the 'National Defense Forces,' increase military power, and wage or participate in war. If the LDP and the JRP enjoyed a landsliding victory again in the House of Councillors election scheduled to be held in July this year, they would be well positioned to promote constitutional amendment campaigns in earnest. If this was the case, their move would certainly meet opposition from the U.S. and other Western countries that had fought against the imperialist Japan's aggressions as well as a number of East Asian countries that had fallen victim to the imperialist Japan's aggressions. Such an extreme right-wing shift in Japan's domestic politics is likely to be manifested as Japan's ambition to take Dokdo. Without doubt, Dokdo is inherent Korean territory historically, geographically, and by international law. Nevertheless, the more Japan's domestic politics shifts to the right, the more likely it will become that the Japanese government will repeat to make unreasonable and rude remarks on Dokdo. Despite the ostensible appeasement gesture that LDP President Abe is making toward the neighboring states such as Korea and China upon his party's victory in the general election, Japan's right-wing shift is a matter of great concern.

Next, China is revealing 'Chinese Nationalism' more strongly than ever. The new leadership of the Communist Party of China launched in November 2012 with General Secretary Xi Jinping (習近平) at its center is calling for 'revival of the Chinese people.' Some Chinese are making claims that treat the histories of some of the neighboring states bordering China as if they were part of the history of their own. A good example is the 'Northeast Project' which incorporated the histories of Koguryo and Balhae, significant parts of the history of the Korean people, into the history of China. In this situation, China is not tolerating the 'illegal measure' of Japan occupying 'Diao yu dao (釣魚島)' and calling them the Senkaku Islands.' In December 2012, both nations were on the brink of military confrontation when they launched aircraft over these islands. Territorial disputes in Asia are taking place not only between China and Japan but also between China and Vietnam, and between China and the Philippines. Against this backdrop, Vietnam is trying to further improve its relationship with the U.S. to form a common front against China, and the Philippines is advocating Japan's consitutional amendment campaigns in an effort to increase restraining influence on China.

Third, the United States, with the reelection of President Barack Obama, announced that the axis of its foreign policy would 'pivot to Asia.' This means that the Obama administration will be much more involved in the East Asian affairs. It appears that the Obama administration is currently adopting the policy of 'surrounding' or 'blockading' China. If the United States tried to hold China in check by strengthening alliance with Japan and the ROK, it would further increase tension in Asia.

Fourth, Russia, with the return of Vladimir Putin to presidency, announced that it would exert more effort on Asia. In other words, Putin expressed his intention of taking an active approach to Far East Asia bordering the Korean peninsula. At the same time, Russia will try to balance the expansion of the United States in this region by significantly improving its relationship with China.

But what demands our attention more seriously than these moves of the powers is North Korea's continued move for nuclear development. At the end of the last year, the Kim Jong-un regime of North Korea celebrated its first birthday by launching long-range rockets. The launch of rockets essentially equates with the trial launch of ballistic missiles, and implies considerable improvement in North Korea's ability to transport nuclear weapons. It appears that North Korea will continue to proceed with their nuclear development. In how many years will the neighboring states be able to deter it remains a question. This is certainly a dangerous situation.

Wishing for a New Year of Peace and Prosperity in Northeast Asia

In this tense situation, South Korea is going to see a new administration starting its 5-year term on February 25, 2013. Most of all, the new administration will need an accurate assessment of external situations, including North Korea's nuclear development which demands a particularly serious and sober assessment. And on the basis of this assessment, the new administration will need to execute both tough and moderate aspects of realistic policy. Most importantly, the new government will need to continue the existing efforts to ensure that the ROK-US alliance remains rock solid and improves. On the other hand, it will also need to make efforts to improve its relationship with China from the wide view of peace and stability in Northeast Asia. In addition, the new administration will need to broaden the base of support within the country to carry out foreign policy by attempting continued dialogue with its opponents or critics including the opposition party, because foreign policy is an extension of domestic politics. Without the base of domestic support, the vitality of foreign policy would be limited.

This year will be an extremely important time for Koreans both as a people and as a nation. At this time of rapid change in the political landscape of Asia, the Northeast Asian History Foundation will need to commit itself to the callings of the times and the Korean people to create an atmosphere for historical reconciliation and peace, and good-neighborliness in this region while reminding itself of its mission as a theoretical pioneer of defending the history and territory of our people. I hope that in the new year tension will ease in Northeast Asia, and there will be peace and prosperity in this region. Once again, I wish all the Korean people health and happiness.

Thank you.