Newsletter

China keeps rising at an amazing speed. Even in 2008 when most countries in the world suffered a negative growth in the midst of a financial crisis, China achieved an 8.7% economic growth. Another financial crisis started in the US last year whose effect is still present, but China's growth continues. China's such remarkable economic growth has given the country more influential power in the international politics. There is still a gap between the US and China in the overall national power on a global scale, and therefore it will be difficult to watch a power transition in the near future. However, it is true that a G-2 system has been formed in Northeast Asia including the Korean peninsula, the most important part of the region surrounding China. Now China aims to set the game rules for this region instead of just accepting the rules set by the US. Such changes were reflected in China's unsupportive diplomatic responses to the sinking of the Cheonan warship in 2010 and the shelling of the Yeonpyeong Island.

More vigorous search for momentum is needed to improve the relationship between Korea and China

The Korea-China relationship calls for a new change in line with China's rise. It is well known that China plays a key role in issues involving North Korea including the North Korean nuclear issue. China's role becomes even bigger as the US gradually loses its influential power. In the economic sphere, the Chinese effect has been a significant factor for Korea's economic growth and the effect is very likely to remain as an important contributing factor even in the future. This scenario is supported by the fact that while China accounts for 25% of Korea's trade, it is not easy to solve the problem of Korea's heavy reliance through its diversification of trade partners. In social and cultural spheres, exchanges between Korea and China have been rapidly growing in every aspect as witnessed by such facts as Korea has become a popular tourist destination among Chinese people and the 'China boom' is not cooling down in Korea.

As China continues to rise and the relationship between Korea and China gets closer, Korea's setting its strategic policy position with China becomes more difficult. As the power balance in the Korean peninsula shifts between the US and China, neither just pursuing policies of reliance on the US nor taking a balancer's role will be easy for Korea. As the US and China will have new governments in 2012, it can also happen that matters of the Korean peninsula will be dealt with within a new framework based on the strategic interests between the US and China. Although the UN Security Council's sanctions against North Korea have continued, the relationship between North Korea and China has been stronger. And there have been changes in relations between North Korea and the US despite a claim that the present relationship between South Korea and the US has never been better than now. Therefore, principles and implementation tasks in the Korea-China relationship need to be checked again.

The basic principle for developing the Korea-China relationship is to improve the quality of the bilateral relationship. In 2008 the two countries established 'A strategic cooperative partner relationship', but it is still at an initial stage with the content is yet to be filled. This is because the two countries have different views on the Korea-US alliance, North Korean matters, histories and territories, ideology, and therefore both Korea and China are maintaining a frame of common aversions that will not worsen the situation rather than pursuing common interests. However, if the different views are transformed into a fixed frame, the cost of solving the problem will be unbearably large. Considering our long-cherished unification of the Korean peninsula, the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula, and the strength of the Korea-China relationship, we should discard our passive response attitude in which we try to avoid facing China, but rather vigorously search for momentum for the development of the bilateral relations.

New approach is needed beyond dichotomous thinking

The diplomatic relationship between Korea and China will have its 20^th anniversary next year. A mature and responsible relationship is expected to have developed if it were between individual people. Policies toward China should not just recognize the differences and seek commonalities between the two, but a new approach is rather needed in which difference are actively reduced and the dichotomous thinking between 'China Threat' and 'China Opportunity' should be overcome.

First of all, co-progress attitude is desired. The two countries have to go together on a long journey. Next, we need wisdom to break and overcome fixed old ideas. Bold imagination is required beyond the fixed ideas about the US and China that have long settled in our society. Thirdly, it should be a triple win. The Korea-China relationship should not just pursue the bilateral benefits but should also work for the international interests in the region. Fourthly, complex thinking is required. Geopolitically, the Korean peninsula is in the place where the oceanic and continental forces contend against each other, and it is a strategic point that is linked to the world through North Korea. The two countries have to share such strategic values. China is not a variable any more, but a constant. Therefore, it has now become urgent to find the extent to which China influences the national interests of Korea, and then establish more specific positions of Korean diplomacy including reaction, adaptation and obedience.

First, in order to reduce the impact of the Chinese variable in the Korean peninsula, proactive and flexible measures are necessary to solve the North Korean nuclear matter before the US and China appears at the intersection. This is also for Korea to gain the hegemony in matters relating to the Korean peninsula, and also to secure the leverage for policies toward China. Second, another hedging strategy is to push actively for a multi-lateral security system to minimize the effect of the conflict between the US and China that may spread into the Korean peninsula. It has already become difficult in East Asia for an alliance network alone to solve regional problems. Therefore, it is necessary to accumulate achievements of cooperation within smaller geographical areas and fruits of cooperation on non-traditional security matters. Third, the Korea-US alliance should advance together with the Korea-China 'strategic relationship'.

The Korea-China relationship does not allow a romantic approach such as 'politically cold but economically hot' as seen in the Japan-China relationship. Therefore, efforts should be made to remove China's concerns that Korea's diplomatic policies are contained within the US frame while Korea is in alliance with China. Fourth, principles and directions should be established in Korea's diplomatic policies for China. Korea should make it clear that no concessions will be made in the core values like democracy, human rights, market economy, history interpretation while the country can apply flexibility in other areas. For this purpose, it will be also necessary to reduce the ideological gap in Korean diplomacy by solidifying the middle class in security matters. Fifth, the diplomatic system should be reorganized. Among other things, a long-term delicate strategy for China should be drafted and the control tower should be strengthened. It is also important that working-level officials are procured and reorganized while expert groups are consulted in the decision-making process. In addition, it is also necessary to make a large-scale reform in diplomacy including the enrichment of the strategic dialogues at deputy minister level, extension of unofficial strategic discussions at different levels, and establishment of Korean societies in China. Sixth, a new economic relationship needs to be established. Korea enjoys a trade surplus of more than 40 billion dollars annually with China, it is practically difficult to avoid a Korea-China FTA. Therefore, it is necessary to accept this as an upcoming reality, and secure technological competitiveness, build human infrastructure, and prepare for the readjustment of industrial structures while suggesting an initiative new economic frame like an East Asia FTA.