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Question

China's economy is rapidly growing. How will it affect Asia and the international community? What does the rise of China mean?

Answer

China's economy is growing at an average annual rate of 8% or higher, which then leads to the expansion of the Chinese economic bloc. China's such development has begun to make a lot of change in the global order, particularly in its relations with the US.

Looking at the rise of China in detail, firstly in the economic aspects, the economy has grown at 8-12% since 1990. China's rapid economic growth within a short period of its development has brought confidence to the country and has made it possible for the country to exercise strong influences to other countries. Entering into the 21^st century, China joined WTO and became a powerful nation in the manufacturing sector as well. China also entered into free trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries, expanded its import and became their trading partners As China has been growing rapidly, a theory of China's threat has appeared at the same time. People are cautious about China's becoming a military and economic power referring to the theory of conflicts of civilizations in the background.

Secondly, in terms of security, the rise of China is proportionate with its economic growth. Historically, the appearance of a new powerful nation was accompanied by uncertain and unsecure factors, and sometimes caused conflicts. In line with their rapid economic development, China increased their military equipment at two-digit rates for the last several years, solidifying its foundation to become a dominant power in the future. Some scholars expect that such situation will create a new cold war between the US and China. Even if China shouts reforms and openness stressing its slogan of 'Together with the world', some people view that it is only a policy, strategy or tactic of the Chinese Communist Party. The US Department of Defense's 〈Annual Report on Military Power of the Republic of China and our National Security〉in August 2010 points out that the US perception of China and policies toward it are changing significantly. The US has kept a policy that confirms its alliance with Japan and makes the country engage with China in a constructive way so that China will become a responsible nation.

Thirdly, in diplomatic aspects, Chinese leaders say that the rise of China will help construct a peaceful and harmonious world. Nevertheless, the US, Japan and other relevant nations think that they need a hedging strategy in preparation for the uncertainty created by China. East Asian countries expect China to become a responsible nation in terms of economy and international diplomacy because they believe it will bring benefits to the regional order. Therefore, what is needed in East Asia is not to blockade China, but to let China play its appropriate role in creating an East Asian community. If China – a country that criticized the international order centering the US and Europe during the Cold War – converts its diplomatic mode from a passive to active one, the economic development and peace will continue in the East Asian future. Looking at China's recent proactive diplomacy toward ASEAN countries, a concern arises that a new order may be formed in East Asia with China playing the central role. But, such movement will probably be different from the closed 'China-Centered Order' of the past. The 21^st century international order in East Asia is changing in line with China's rapid economic growth. Particularly, the China's change of attitude since the Lehman shock in 2008 has caused anxiety and concern in the surrounding region. As a result, possessing counteractive power against China has become an important task in policies of those nations surrounding China.