뉴스레터

Sixty-seven years have passed since Korea was liberated from Japan's colonial rule but divided into the North and the South by the Allies. In those years, the Republic of Korea has joined the ranks of developed countries by achieving remarkable growth and development praised and envied by many countries around the world. In contrast, the 'Democratic People's Republic of Korea' is deep in a state of debilitation beyond depression.
Countries surrounding the Korean peninsula have also had their share of changes. While the United States have remained in the status of supreme power, the Soviet Union as the other axis of the Allies has been disintegrated and the Russian Federation, its succession state, with smaller land and population than the Soviet Union, has fallen out of the status of two major superpowers in the world. On the other hand, People's Republic of China, with its opening and reform policy having accelerated its economic growth, is now in the 'G2' along with the United States. Japan, one of the countries defeated in the Second World War, has achieved remarkable military and economic growth, securing itself in a position to exert major influence on the destiny of Northeast Asia.
Under the circumstances, it would be crucial for the Republic of Korea to ask themselves in which direction the Korean peninsula should move and, in particular, what 'major strategies' they should adopt and execute. Let me take some time to consider these extremely important national questions.

A Consideration of the Geopolitical Constant

The first thing that comes to mind when I think about the occasion of the 67th year after the liberation is the geopolitical location of the Korean Peninsula. Although this phrase, having been repeated so many times since my childhood, is almost a cliche, it still holds true today, as we have come to confirm time and again, that the geopolitical location of the Korean peninsula in Northeast Asia is constraining the destiny of us Koreans. This is why I identify the geopolitical location of the Korean peninsula as a constant when discussing the present and future of the Korean people.

Dividing the Korean peninsular was the option often used by the surrounding powers to coordinate or resolve conflicts of interests among themselves, as exemplified in the relationships between Silla and Tang, between Goryeo and Yuan, and during the Imjin War, the Sino-Japanese War, and the Russo-Japanese War during the Joseon dynasty. Once Imperialist Japan collapsed, such an attempt finally culminated in the division of the Korean peninsular along the 38th parallel line, signifying the declaration of their respective power zones by the United States and the Soviet Union already in the Cold War. For this reason, when the Cold War escalated into a hot war, neither side of the Korean War, which lasted from 1950 to 1953, was allowed a complete victory or a complete defeat. Specifically, when North Korea nearly conquered South Korea, the United States intervened in the name of the U.N. Similarly, when the South nearly conquered the North, China intervened in the name of Chinese People's Volunteers, restoring the nation to the prewar state.

It is such a geopolitical consideration and the resulting balance of power policy that have been responsible for the prolonged division of the Korean peninsula. With the beginning of the 1970s, the existing Cold War system began to change and show signs of coming to an end. Amid this new international atmosphere, North and South Korea adopted the historic July 4 Joint North-South Declaration. However, it made no further progress due to international as well as domestic political reasons; the world powers didn't want the unification of Korea. And at the center of those reasons of international politics lies the balance of power policy resulting from geopolitical considerations.

Essentially, this still holds true today, as suggested by the speculations that China will intervene if and when the North Korean regime collapses. The speculations that China will not tolerate it if South Korea, a pro-American country advocating liberal democracy and market economy principles, expanded its borders northward to Abrok and Duman Rivers, and that it will be, therefore, practically impossible for Korea to achieve unification without consent of China have been derived from within the framework of the balance of power policy resulting from geopolitical considerations.

The Current Political Landscape of Northeast Asia

Based on these assumptions, let me examine the current political landscape of Northeast Asia. The first thing to note is the formation of a tangible South Korea-US-Japan partnership as well as a North Korea-China-Russia partnership, although the latter is not as clear as the former. At any rate, 'partnerships' in the North and the South of a country divided into north and south are inevitably 'confrontational' in nature and, therefore, demand our attention.

Let me first examine the fact that the relationship between the U.S and China holds the key to these two 'confrontational' partnerships. Both countries regard the other as a 'pseudo-enemy' or at least a 'potent rival.' although their labored diplomatic language often hide their true intentions. They both aim at supremacy in Northeast Asia and even the Pacific Rim region.

These ambitions of both countries are manifested directly in the Korean peninsula. China, while trying to keep North Korea under their powerful influence, has pushed forward the 'Northeast Project' in multiple phases to deal with future scenarios that could unfold in the Korean peninsula. The U.S. is trying to engage both Korea and Japan in building a combined blockade against China. It is in this context that one can understand the General Security Of Military Information Agreement between Korea and Japan, a recent controversy in the domestic politics of Korea.

Also noteworthy are Russia's active moves back to Northeast Asia. In particular, Russian President Putin, an advocate of a 'strong Russia,' is trying to cement Russia-China relations in the name of partnership with China because he wants to prevent the U.S. from seizing supremacy in this region. This explains a rather frigid atmosphere in the U.S-Russia relations lately.

Japan's recent internal moves to officially establish itself as a military power are, without doubt, targed at Russia, China, and North Korea. Japan's strong response against Russia or China over territorial disputes only triggers the chain reaction of Russia or China's equally strong countermeasures against Japan.

Adding to this imbroglio is North Korea's ambition to develop and possess nuclear weapons. The death of Kim Jong-ill and the succession of power by his son Kim Jong-un seem unlikely to lead North Korea to give up developing and possessing nuclear weapons which are as good as a life insurance for the North Korean leadership.

The Way Forward for Korea

Today, in the 67th year after the liberation, the Korean peninsular finds itself in a grim situation. Its status as a divided nation is becoming less likely to come to an end but more likely to be reinforced even further.

While South Korea overwhelms North Korea in terms of its power and the confidence of its people, the South Korean society has started breaking up, primarily due to the growing gap between rich and poor and the consequently deepening rift between the classes. Someone should put a stop to this trend, and this is a job to be done by the new administration of South Korea that will take off in February 2013. Otherwise, active and effective response to the highly confrontational new international framework would be difficult. South Korea should begin by easing domestic conflicts if it were to pave the way for the democratic and peaceful unification of its people. At the same time, South Korea should make efforts to maintain a good relationship with China while trying to make sure that Japan stops laying arrogant claim to the Korean territory Dokdo. It is now time for South Korea to embark on active diplomacy in international relations in Northeast Asia.