뉴스레터

On January 24, 2005, when I was a correspondent in Washington, I attended the 'NeoCon Forum' held at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). The forum was more of a convention of neo-cons celebrating the reelection of President George W. Bush. Not even once the term Korea, whether 'South' or 'North,' was mentioned during the forum that lasted over two hours. Once the forum was over, I asked Irwin Stelzer, the author of Neocon Reader, and Charles Krauthammer known as the 'Ideologue of NeoCon,' "Aren't you interested in the issues of the Korean peninsula or Northeast Asia?" They answered, "Compared with the Middle East, the Korean peninsula or Northeast Asia is a relatively peaceful and stable region. Washington will continue to focus on the Middle East policy. And when it comes to the Northeast Asian policy, Washington's focus will be on maintaining the status quo."

Power Shift in International Politics from the 20th to the 21st Century

International politics in the 20th century was centered in Central Europe and the Middle East. Central Europe was the place of geopolitical significance where Western Europe clashed with Russia, and the Middle East was a supplier of the strategic material of oil. When the Soviet Union fell in the late 20th century, the geopolitical importance of Central Europe fell with it, diverting the interest of the United States, the only remaining superpower, solely to the Middle East.

While President Bush, having declared the 'War on Terror,' was preoccupied with the Middle East policy, including the Iraqi War, the economic and military powers of the United States began to decline slowly but surely, along with its international reputation. Meanwhile, China the 'Sleeping Lion' began to wake up and stretch itself.

At the turn of the 21st century, Northeast Asia began to rise as the key region of global economy and international politics. As of 2010, Korea, China, and Japan as the three major players of Northeast Asia account for 22.3 percent of the world's population, 19.6 percent of the world's GDP, and 17.6 percent of the world's trade volume, comparable to those of the United States and the European Union (EU).

Having a larger economical influence usually means having an upgraded political status and giving rise to changes in the security environment. For a start, the United States as the superpower has stepped up its involvement in Northeast Asia. Having stepped out of the Middle East, US President Barack Obama declared return to East Asia in a new defense policy announced earlier this year. In addition, Russia, which has built its national power to a certain degree through oil export, is working on Siberia development in an effort to seek access to Northeast Asia.

Peace in Northeast Asia Now Means World Peace

Against this backdrop, Northeast Asia has begun to find itself in turmoil as Korea and Japan had a dispute over claims to Dokdo and the history of the past, and then China and Japan were teetering on the brink of military confrontation over claims to the Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands in Chinese) and the history of the past. In the process, Northeast Asia has exposed its vulnerability to security threats, quite at odds with its remarkable economic growth. Experts of international security view the increasing territorial disputes in Northeast Asia, and East Asia, as the byproducts of the United States and China making power shifts. The disputes, they argue, were not prompted by one-off events such as South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's visit to Dokdo or Japan's nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, but they were 'changes manifested within the large structure of clash between the United States and China.'

In Northeast Asia, the system of dialogue or cooperation encompassing the whole region has been largely inactive for a long time. By contrast, the Cold War structure of 'South Korea/the U.S./Japan vs. North Korea/China/Russia' has lingered, and it is within that framework that North and South Korea, North Korea and the US, North Korea and Japan, and Japan and China have sought changes, big or small, through bilateral relations.

However, the time has come now when peace in Northeast Asia is directly linked to world peace, and there are moves in this region for multilateral cooperation, notably the South Korea-China-Japan Summit. The heads of the three states have had five rounds of talks, and the secretariat for the trilateral summit was established in Seoul. At the 5th trilateral summit held in May 2012, the three states agreed to launch negotiations for a trilateral FTA (Free Trade Agreement). The industries of the three states are in competition, of course, but also highly complementary to one another. Therefore, expanding common economic gains could be an important key to stability in the Northeast Asian region. However, cooperation limited to the three states alone would immediately invite the intervention of the United States trying to keep them in check. Washington is said to have contacted Seoul to explore the possibility of establishing the South Korea-US-Japan secretariat corresponding to the South Korea-China-Japan secretariat.

For Koreans, Peace and Prosperity on the Korean Peninsula Is Most Important out of Peace and Prosperity in Northeast Asia

Another point that calls our attention is the role of the six-party talks in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. The question is, put differently, will the six-party talks expand into the Northeast Asian Security Forum just as the former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice proposed? The participating states have already agreed to make concerted efforts toward peace and stability in Northeast Asia and build a permanent peace regime within the six-party talks.

Peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia can mean a number of things, but what matters most to us Koreans is peace and prosperity in the Korean peninsula. As experience has proved, South Korea can have a bigger diplomatic leverage toward the United States or China when it vitalize exchanges with North Korea by improving inter-Korean relations. This means that it is absolutely necessary for the next administration of South Korea to make efforts to mend the broken inter-Korean relations.

Bringing permanent peace and prosperity to the Korean peninsula is a goal attainable only through the reunification of North and South Korea. Surveys show that the number of South Koreans in favor of the reunification is on the decline. It's a shame. The Korean people should gain a deeper understanding of the tremendous effects that the reunification will bring to security, economy, and every other area of life. To help them do so may be among the roles to be taken on by the Northeast Asian History Foundation.

Make the Best of Our Opportunities and Abilities for Peace and Prosperity in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia

Next year will see catalysts for far bigger changes in the political landscape of Northeast Asia. This year, Kim Jong-un of North Korea has taken the position of supreme leader, and in Russia, President Vladmir Putin has returned to power. Soon, China will also see the first change of leadership in ten years. There will be presidential elections in November in the United States, and in December in South Korea. Japan is also expected to see a change of administrations soon. Therefore, the next year will be a time when the major countries around Northeast Asia will work on new Northeast Asian policy in time with the launch of new administrations.

Meanwhile, South Korea has been elected a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for a two-year term starting from next year. As it happens, Ban Ki-moon, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, is Korean, and Jim Yong Kim, the President of the World Bank (WB), is of Korean descent, although the WB may be less relevant to international security. This situation is described by some experts in foreign affairs and national security as "a golden opportunity (for Korea) to lead reunification diplomacy." Are they getting ahead of themselves? I don't think so. A time has come when we should and can make the best out of our opportunities and abilities to bring peace, stability, and prosperity to the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia. Are we as a nation committed and competent enough to take advantage of such opportunities? That is the only question left to be answered.