뉴스레터

In the 21st century, the world's center is shifting rapidly toward Asia. East Asia in general, including South Korea, China, Japan and the ASEAN nations, has already surpassed the United States or the European Union in economic output, and China in particular is expected to replace the United States as the world's most powerful economy by the 2030s. South Korea, while dealing with internal challenges as a divided nation and an aging society, has many roles to play in the future of Asia as a leading middle power located at the geopolitical center of Northeast Asia bridging between powerful and weak nations, and between advanced and developing ones. Specifically, there are five main areas in which South Korea is expected to play important roles: sustainable economic development; regional cooperation and integration; democracy and human rights; green growth; and cultural communications.

South Korea to Play Important Roles in Economic Development and Other Areas

First of all, sustainable economic development is the first and foremost challenge faced by all Asian nations. To achieve sustainable economic development, they are required to secure future growth engines, expand economical territories through free trade, and provide support for development. South Korea is expected to continue to fulfill its roles as a leader of economic development in Asia by promoting free trade and investment in the region and supporting efforts for development in developing nations.

Second, Asia is gradually expanding and deepening regional cooperation and integration, although not as much as in Europe, through such forums and organizations as the ASEAN, the TSC (Trilateral (South Korea, Japan, and China) Cooperation Secretariat), ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, the EAS (East Asia Summit), and the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation). The contributions that South Korea makes in the process to promoting cooperation and maintaining peace in the region are significant. By 2030 at the latest, Korea is expected to overcome the challenge as the only nation remaining divided after the Cold War, and achieve de facto unification by establishing an economic community between the North and the South.

Third, the importance of democracy and human rights is being recognized and appreciated in broader regions in Asia. Even though they may differ in their political systems and beliefs, Asian nations are all the same in their pursuit of democracy and human rights. In particular, with the rapid development of technology, ‘digital democracy' through real-time communications by smart-phones and other IT gadgets is becoming a common phenomenon. South Korea is the country that has achieved the most vibrant political democracy in Asia, with high respect for human rights as the universal value of mankind and the world's most active users of SNSs (Social Networking Services). South Korea has also begun discussing ways to achieve ‘economic democracy' on its path to becoming an advanced country that pursues welfare as well as growth.

Fourth, green growth is a challenge and opportunity that can make or break the future of Asia. The Asian powers like China, Japan, and India and the Southeast Asian nations like Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are working toward reducing carbon emissions and developing new and renewable sources of energy, and also adopting environment-friendly policies to cope with global climate change. And as a promoter of green growth in Asia, South Korea is at the forefront of technological innovation to push forward green economy and the advancement of the safe nuclear industry to ensure the development of green energy.

Last, but not least, cultural communication is essential to a better future of Asia. Breaking the barriers of races, cultures, religions and customs in Asia to establish "common Asian values" and identity as members of the Asian community will contribute to peace and prosperity in the region and beyond. South Korea, as a cultural power in Asia built on its cultural influences from both Japan and China, will ride the Korean Wave as the effective soft power for global cultural communications, and play leading roles in the 21st-century multi-cultural society.

North Korea Should Move from Military-First Policy to Economic Cooperation with South Korea

North Korea's future does not depend on military-first politics based on increasing armaments. It depends on the kind of reform and opening-up that will get its citizens out of economic difficulties. For North Korea's gradual reform and opening-up, nothing would be more effective than inter-Korean economic exchange and cooperation, even though Vietnam's economic development model may be also relevant. If unification is still in the agenda of South Korea, stimulating trade and investment in North Korea through inter-Korean economic cooperation would be better than the North Korean economy becoming too much dependent on China.

North Korea's recent move to unilaterally shut down the Gaeseong Industrial Complex was like closing the only window open to inter-Korean cooperation. And it will make the North Korean economy much worse off than it already was. To achieve the goal of establishing an economic community between the North and the South, South Korea and the international community need to be patient and committed to the principle in their efforts to induce North Korea to stop taking the risk of developing nuclear arsenal and choose reform and opening-up.

The Park Geun-hye administration of South Korea is currently undertaking the 'Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process,' and it can be seen as an effort to induce North Korea's gradual change based on strong deterrence power and vigorous efforts for dialogue, improve inter-Korean relations, and lay a foundation for peaceful unification.

The 'Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process' Drawing on Germany's Experience

The fall of the Berlin Wall twenty years ago accelerated Germany's unification. However, this German model of rapid unification may not apply directly to the Korean peninsula where the fratricidal war fought over sixty years ago is not officially over yet. Besides, North Korea is working on nuclear development and receiving energy and food supply from China. Yet, we Koreans could still draw three lessons from Germany's experience of unification.

First, unification requires constant efforts for exchange and cooperation between the North and the South. This means that we need to be patient while trying to help North Korea change first through dialogue and persuasion.

Second, it is essential that North Korean citizens choose freedom and unification over oppression and control. For that to happen, we need to continue to provide them with information about the outside world and humanitarian support, and carry out policies to improve human rights situation in North Korea.

Third, we need to make sure that we are fully prepared for the window of opportunities for unification that could open when we least expected it.

South Korea with its unique experience of achieving fast-track progress in industrialization, democracy, information technology, and globalization, all in less than fifty years, is expected to play even more important roles than ever before in the future growth, development, and peace and prosperity of Asia.

Northeast Asian History Foundation Should Lead Efforts to Resolve Historical Conflicts in Northeast Asia

Of course, I don't mean to imply that only a rosy future awaits Asia. As the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has already warned, Asia could fall into the fit of developed countries in the process of development in the future. In fact, the Asian economy is being affected seriously by the Eurozone crisis that started in Europe in 2012 and hit the United States and China and the rest of the world. Pollution, water scarcity, energy scarcity, the gap between rich and poor are getting serious and posing threats to economic growth in Asia. However, while the U.S. and European economies are expected to remain slow in recovery for growth, the Asian economy is emerging as a growth engine that will restore vitality to world economy through free trade, increasing domestic consumption, and the innovation of industrial technology. What is required of Asian countries at this juncture is to create the common values and codes of conduct while working toward overcoming mid- to long-term challenges, and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity through cultural communications. Meanwhile, South Korea should fulfill its missions and roles as an advanced cultural power that will lead Asia to cooperation and integration in the multi-cultural society while sharing its experiences in achieving economic development and political democracy with Asian nations and expanding the framework for free trade and investment, and writing a new chapter in history by achieve peaceful unification with the North.

In this respect, I believe that the Northeast Asian History Foundation has all the more important roles and functions in the 21st century because facing and overcoming the history of conflict and division in Northeast Asia and opening a new era of peace and cooperation is prerequisite for the better and prosperous future of Asia.