뉴스레터

The mission of the Northeast Asian History Foundation is to reflect on the past and improve the future. We study what happened in the past because we want to create a better future with lessons learned from history. E. H. Carr defined history as a "dialogue between the past and the present," but perhaps history may be a dialogue between the past and the future. Therefore, in the future, studies in Northeast Asian history should be directed toward contributing to peace and prosperity for the people of not only the Republic of Korea but other countries in the region. When we study the past, we shouldn't lose interest in the future, so that our knowledge of the past is alive and relevant. In this regard, we need continuing interest in matters concerning what will become of Northeast Asia in the future and how the future of the Korean peninsula will change.

In the recent political landscape in Northeast Asia and the Korean peninsula, fluidity and uncertainty still pervade, which makes it difficult to make predictions about the future. The economic rise of China, the 'Pivot to Asia' policy of the U.S., rapid developments in China-ROK relations, territorial conflicts between China and Japan, and issues concerning history are among the factors that contribute to the ongoing conflict threatening cooperation among countries in the region. In particular, North Korea, with its three nuclear tests and frequent military provocations under the banner of 'Military First' politics with no regard for opening-up and reform, poses a permanent threat to us. How North Korea's such provocations will be handled by the Republic of Korea and other countries in the region and whether North Korea will change or not will have a great impact on not only the order of the Korean peninsula but the future of Northeast Asia. For example, how China will deal with North Korea as its lifeline can shape the political landscape of the Korean peninsula. I saw some signs of change in China-North Korea relations lately, and think that new approaches and strategies will be needed for peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia including the Korean peninsula.

Recently, I was under the strong impression that the Chinese government's North Korea policy was standing at a new junction. A three-hour conversation I had this summer with the Shandong Province manager in charge of international exchange confirmed that the Xi Jinping government of China was taking the North Korean nuclear issue very seriously. Moreover, I was surprised that China had shown keen interest in the tri-lateral (ROK, US, China) conference recently held in Seoul. Although this conference was for non-governmental scholars to gather together to discuss issues concerning the Korean peninsula, the fact that China takes such a conference seriously is a very important change, considering China's reluctance to participate in such conferences until recently.

And the CSIC (Center for Strategic and International Studies) ran an article by Ren Shao (任曉) that I found shocking. He said that despite the Chinese government's "repeated advice with goodwill (苦口婆心)" given to North Korea about the nuclear issue, opening-up and reform and the like, North Korea was still "behaving recklessly and having its own way (肆无忌憚)," thereby undermining China's strategic interests, which had given rise to the abandonment school arguing for "abandoning North Korea." As recently as a few years ago, it was unthinkable for a Chinese scholar to make such a statement in public. Of course, Ren Shao also said that he could not agree with the abandonment school and that the Chinese government would need to make adjustments to its North Korea policy. While the Chinese government may not abandon North Korea after all, he continues, at least the ideology-based protection of North Korea is no longer in China's strategic interests, because North Korea's nuclear and missile development and military provocations put China in a strategically more difficult position by giving the U.S. an excuse to increase its military power around the Korean peninsula. He argues that it is time for China to start changing its relations with North Korea from alliance to "state-to-state relations." As such, China in the Xi Jinping era is perceiving "the Korean Peninsula as a strategic asset."¹⁾

China is recently pushing forward a policy that views the Korean Peninsula as a whole as a strategic asset instead of treating only North Korea with importance. China is weighing the future value of the Korean Peninsula in terms of new geopolitics and new geoeconomics at more complex levels, instead of simple equidistant diplomacy toward North and South Korea. This notion can bring about changes to China's North Korea policy or China-ROK relations. In particular, when approaching China-ROK relations, China does not view them simply as bilateral relations but takes into consideration China-Japan relations and China-US relations on Northeast Asian and global levels, respectively, as well as the dynamic and uncertain aspects of inter-Korean relations. Additionally, the possibility of policy coordination between China and the ROK over issues concerning North Korea and its nuclear development is known to be under close examination.

In the future, we should make good use of changes in China's North Korea policy to make them a springboard for resolution of issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula. To this end, what efforts should we make? I'd like to stress that to ensure peace and prosperity in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, the coevolution strategy and the strengthening of the epistemic community are needed. The gist of the coevolution strategy is that for peace and prosperity in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, not only North and South Korea but their neighboring countries should, while in coexistence, exert selective pressure on each other to pursue continuous evolution in the direction that will benefit all. The primary goals of the coevolution strategy are to: 1) "create a new Korean Peninsula"; and 2) "create a new Northeast Asia." In other words, in order to create a new community conducive to promoting peace and prosperity in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, the countries within the region, including North and South Korea, should work toward changing North Korea, improving inter-Korean relations, and establishing a new Northeast Asian order under the principles of mutual responsibility, synchronized efforts, and sharing benefits.

Specific plans for the coevolution strategy are as follows. The first one is to change North Korea and its neighboring countries simultaneously; not only North Korea but South Korea and its neighbouring countries should make concerted efforts to create an ecological environment conducive to North Korea's change. Specifically, creating an environment in which North Korea would abandon nuclear development and Military-First politics is at the core of the coevolution strategy. And the next step is to work toward North Korea's opening-up and reform by concurrently promoting economic cooperation between the two Koreas, among North and South Korea and China, and among North and South Korea and Russia and to create an environment for the concurrent establishment of diplomatic ties between North Korea and the U.S., and between North Korea and Japan. The second plan for the coevolution strategy is to promote both the unification of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a new order in Northeast Asia; specifically, promoting the establishment of a new order in Northeast Asia (through epistemic community, economic community, security community, and political community) in conjunction with the establishment of the inter-Korean peace community, economic community, political community (North and South Korean Union), and unified country. The last plan is to strengthen the "coevolution" epistemic community; this is about South Korea initiating the "Creating a New Korean Peninsula and a New Northeast Asia" project to expand and deepen the network of experts at home and abroad (e.g. scholars, bureaucrats, journalists, civil-society activists) who will share the value and goals of a new order in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia and propose solutions to pending issues.

After World War II, the countries in Europe created a trans-border network of experts with the goal of preventing another war. The epistemic community so created shared the value and goals of European integration and made concerted efforts to resolve pending issues, resulting in the creation of what would become the European Union today. Also in Northeast Asia, such an epistemic community needs to be created and become a major force that will resolve conflicts within South Korea over North Korea policy and Korean unification policy and establish a new order in the Korean Peninsula. I strongly hope that the Northeast Asian History Foundation will take the lead in establishing such an epistemic community.

¹⁾Lee Young-hak and Lee Chun-bok, "China's New Power Diplomacy: The Emerging China's New Diplomatic Initiative." Seongkyun China Focus, Vol. 6, August 1, 2013, p.15.