뉴스레터

In the 2013 upper-house election, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a huge victory, gaining control of both houses. This put an end to the so-called "divided" or "twisted" (ねじれ) Diet which had placed many restrictions on the Abe cabinet in leading politics in Japan. In other words, this would be the first chance for the Abe cabinet and the LDP to 'normalize' or bring back on track their domestic politics. Of course, what they think is 'normal' is not necessarily welcome by the neighboring countries of Japan because the rapid rightward and conservative shift in Japanese politics is a source of conflict with them.

The LDP led by Shinzo Abe had gained power as the LDP had defeated the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), then-ruling party of Japan, in the election. As a result, Shinzo Abe had become Prime Minister for the second time in his career, whereupon he said he would like to finish what he had started during his first term as Prime Minister. The return of the 'Abe power' has important significance in the history of Japanese politics because it marks the fall of the DPJ forces and the return of conservative politics by the LDP which had once held power for many years since 1955. This means that the politicians who are inherently more right-wing than the simple conservative forces have risen to power.

Results of the 2013 Upper-House Election

As a result of the 2013 upper-house election, Abe's LDP-NKP (New Komeito Party) coalition gave birth to a ruling party that held a vast majority of seats. In other words, they got what they wanted in this election by securing a vast majority of seats over the opposition party (135 to 107), putting an end to the twisted Diet (in which the ruling party did not have control). The DPJ, on the other hand, had lost ground by losing in major cities and the rest of the country, essentially failing to function as an effective opposition party.

The total number of seats in the upper house of Japan is 242, and a majority of which, or 121 seats (73 for prefectural and 48 for proportional), were up for grabs in this election. And the LDP won 65 seats, the DPJ 17, the Restoration Party 8, the NKP 11, Your Party 8, Communist Party 8, the Social Democratic Party 1, and Independents and Others 3. Obviously, this was a landslide victory for the LDP not only in prefectural but also in proportional votes. And the number of seats won by parties that could side with the LDP was 160, close to 162, two thirds of the total.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he understood the results of this election to be the people's voice supporting him to push forward with his policy and that he was planning to work with the liked-minded Osaka Restoration Association in operating the Diet.

Having failed to present an alternative that would effectively counter the LDP's policy, the DPJ won no more than 17 seats, not just in Tokyo but across the country, the lowest number ever in its history.

The Significance of the LDP's Landslide Victory and Challenges for Japanese Politics

How did Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lead his party to win this election by a landslide? Was it because his policies of increasing quantitative easing and government expenditures and relaxing regulations increased his approval rating and earned the people's trust? While there are actually positive feelings toward Abe's economic policy known as 'Abenomics,' the general consensus is that its effects still remain to be seen. In other words, while there are people who feel the changes that 'Abenomics' has begun to make in consumer behavior, and the 'weak Yen' is helping the manufacturing sector relying on export, there is also a downside as costs for importing raw materials increase. When it comes to matters concerning TPP, consumption tax, and the move beyond nuclear power, however, there are voices critical of the LDP. And there is an increasingly larger number of business managers who think that economy will pick up from August onward, even though the prospects are not bright for now because of the rising prices of raw materials and electricity. Therefore, the policy needed from now on would be about a radical, long-term reform of the ailing economy instead of about the existing one concerned with the redistribution of income through public projects.

The outcome of this election is: (1) understood to mean that the voters of Japan trust Prime Minister Abe and ask him to push forward with his economic policy, but (2) it can also mean that thanks to the failure of the DJP's policy, the LDP has secured 129 seats that will allow smooth operation of the Diet. Meanwhile, (3) the LDP will plan on staying in power for many years to come while focusing on the current agenda and putting off the policies that require approval from a majority of the people as mid- to long-term challenges. The LDP will adopt credit easing, fiscal stimulus and growth strategy as three policies that will keep Yen weak and drive up stock prices, and execute the growth strategy by relaxing regulations. In particular, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has understood the outcome of this election to mean the end of the distorted Diet and a cue to execute strategies for economic growth, he will establish a framework to execute them and decide on the increase of consumption tax in coming Fall as scheduled and basically in accordance to the law, but not before reviewing the analysis of the economic situations of April through June.

Having failed to win a majority of seats on its own, the LDP will try to win 162 seats, or two-thirds of the total seats, through operation of the coalition party. If it succeeded, this could lead to reshuffling in Japanese politics, giving birth to a new political structure in Japan. But this wouldn't be easy because the NKP is unlikely to say yes to everything. The NKP will put a priority on stability and peace, and show its true colors in policies with higher priorities. At the same time, the NKP will launch new cooperation with the LDP to earn confidence from the people.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to make efforts for the right of collective self-defense while enjoying a stable state in which he will discuss matters such as the revision of the Act on Referendum. Whether the Abe government will be able to end deflation and resolve other challenges facing Japanese politics by raising consumption tax, sorting out the TPP negotiations, revising the interpretation of the constitution surrounding the right of collective self-defense, amending the constitution, and instituting a reform in the election system is a matter of our interest. Since the victory in the upper-house election, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has asserted that the operation of economy is what matters most, placing emphasis on reviving economy as the most important of all his tasks of steering the country's affairs. But how will he really manage the LDP as a large party? Abe's political ability will be put to test soon.

Korea-Japan Relations after the 2013 Upper-House Election

Being basically right-wing and conservative, the Abe Cabinet will continue to cause conflict in its relations with South Korea. As Abe himself is basically in favor of Japanese politicians' visits to Yasukuni Shrine, and his rightward moves will continue, the South Korea-Japan relations are likely to chill more than ever.

When it comes to historical issues, whether Japan will ultimately amend Article 9 of its constitution by revising Article 96 first is of South Korea's interest. Once Article 9 of the constitution is amended, Japan is likely to found the national defense force, which means that Japan will continue to have conflicts with the countries that had suffered under their hands in the past. To prevent this from happening, the U.S. will have to play roles as an active arbitrator, and demand that Japan should show gestures of friendly cooperation toward its neighboring countries.

Our interests in the future will lie in when and how Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will recognize the right of collective self-defense by changing the constitutional interpretation. The NKP is taking a careful approach to this matter but of the same opinion as the old government of Japan that the use of force may be acceptable within the scope of the right of individual self-defense. However, the opinion that will gain strength will be that considering a number of changes in the international environment in-depth discussions will be necessary to help the people make sense of it.

In their future relations with Japan, South Korea will take a resolute stance on historical issues and pressure Japan. Of course, South Korea will also make efforts to establish a long-term cooperative relationship with the Abe administration. If the Abe administration remained committed to its current position and to the slogans for going beyond the post-war state, South Korea would seek to form an international alliance with related nations to pressure the Abe government. Consequently, the Abe Cabinet would face a crisis from April 2014 onward as Abenomics reaches its limits and their approval rating falls. If the LDP tried to keep the Abe administration in power for the next three years until 2015 without election, as they had been in power for as many as 54 years since 1955, there might be opposition from within and this could deal a blow to the government.